This piece was originally published by the Royal United Services Institute.
The 2025 Three Seas Initiative (3SI) Summit at the end of April presents a historic opportunity to play a pivotal role in shaping the future of US-European Union-Ukraine relations.
On 28 February, President Trump and Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy were expected to sign a preliminary critical materials and mineral deal. The partnership intended to finance Kyiv’s defence against Russia, its post-war reconstruction and the repayment of US assistance via a joint fund drawing on the rights and revenues of Ukraine’s relevant resources. However, it fell short of a security guarantee, which Trump said Europe must be responsible for.
The contentious Oval Office meeting failed to produce a signed agreement, and indicated that the interests of Ukraine and the United States may be diverging. The summit's outcome also reflected an impasse on several points, such as prerequisites to peace negotiations, peacekeeping and the conditions for continued aid (which Trump subsequently froze).
In the days that followed, European leaders convened in London and Brussels to voice support for Ukraine, while discussing the future of transatlantic relations and the continent’s changing role in the war in the context of Trump’s apparent 'Russia reset.' The most significant outcomes thus far include the European Commission setting a goal of increasing defense spending by $700 to $850 billion, and the loosening of budget restrictions in order to pursue it.
