This piece originally appeared in RealClearDefense.
The great power competition for tomorrow’s critical mineral supplies will play out in African ports and mines. Despite falling behind China in foreign investment, America has the opportunity to catch up and secure access to the resources that power next-generation military and commercial technologies. But to compete, we must understand China’s role as an alternative lender and developmental partner. Out of all African countries, Tanzania best exemplifies the potential of Chinese engagement as well as the danger that America and its allies could be shut out of an essential supply chain for critical minerals.
China and Tanzania have long enjoyed a close relationship since establishing relations in 1964. In 1970, the two countries began work on the TAZARA rail line. Funded largely by grants from the PRC, the expansive project stretched for over 1,000 miles to connect landlocked Zambia to coastal Tanzania.
The TAZARA railway also became an early test for Beijing’s now-familiar BRI formula. Using Chinese materials, overseen by Chinese firms, and in total employing over 50,000 Chinese workers, the railway offered an opportunity for the PRC to expand its construction industry and diplomatic footprint abroad. Upon its completion in 1975, the rail stood both as an example of successful cooperation between China and other developing countries and as a cornerstone of the burgeoning Sino-Tanzanian relationship. It also created a potential route for natural resource extraction. By linking northern Zambia with Dar es Salaam, Tanzania’s largest city and main port, the TAZARA line could serve to transport copper, cobalt, and other critical minerals from the African interior. Today, the railway is in a state of disrepair, as Tanzania has long sought aid to modernize the line from China. But recently the PRC committed to spending up to $1 billion to modernize the rail line – an investment which could transform TAZARA into the lynchpin of Beijing’s African mineral supply chain.
Port investment is an equally important part of China’s growing critical mineral portfolio. Already, copper from Zambia, cobalt from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and rare minerals from the northern part of South Africa go through the port of Dar es Salaam to China. At once, this dynamic presents a challenge and opportunity for China. Given the vast quantity of resources flowing through Dar es Salaam, in addition to trade with other countries, the port is crowded and inefficient. But this need for modernization presented a chance for China to improve its raw material supply chain and solidify its presence in Tanzania.
In 2013 the opportunity presented itself. The Tanzanian government and China Merchant Holdings announced a $10 billion deal to redesign and modernize Bagamoyo port, which sits just north of Dar es Salaam. Close enough to the capital for trade to be easily directed and its security guaranteed by a ninety nine year lease to Chinese investors, the Bagamoyo port project would allow the PRC to alleviate its resource congestion issues and gain a foothold on the African continent.
But one year after the project began construction in 2015, then-President John Magufuli brought the enterprise to a halt after expressing concern that the deal limited Tanzania’s right to develop additional ports as well as China’s latitude to use the land as it saw fit under the terms of the ninety nine year lease. For the remainder of his term until his death in office in 2021, the project remained mired in stalled negotiations. His successor, Samia Suluhu Hassan, announced in 2021 that Tanzania and the Bagamoyo port project’s PRC-backed investors would reinitiate negotiations, which appear likely to succeed.
These two projects have the potential to solidify Chinese control of the supply chain for critical minerals extracted from central Africa – a pressing issue where America is falling behind. Already, Chinese companies own 80% of the cobalt output in the DRC, the source of an overwhelming majority of the world’s supply. Similarly, Chinese companies refine 90% of cobalt in the battery market. Already, China’s dominant position has enabled it to take the lead in 37 of 44 critical technologies. The competition for critical minerals will determine access to the materials that power commercial and military innovation. If America continues allowing China unchallenged control of the critical mineral supply chain, we cede our strategic technological edge.
The first step to challenging Chinese mineral dominance is to offer an alternative to Chinese investment in railway infrastructure. In September 2023, America and several partners initiated the Lobito Corridor project as part of G-7’s Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment. With $250 million in American financing to be provided by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and additional investment from EU countries, the Lobito Corridor would offer an alternative to the TAZARA line.
In two parts, the project would connect the southern DRC and northern Zambia to the Angolan port of Lobito. First, the investment will improve an existing 1,300km line that connects the DRC and Angola. Then, additional financing will create a new line that leads into Zambia.
The Lobito Corridor project is a meaningful first step towards offering an alternative to Chinese investment, but policymakers should be clear about the goals of future projects in Africa. America and its partners should aim to be an alternative investment option, not try to supplant China as the lone source of developmental financing. African countries should be able to freely choose between competing offers, rather than being trapped in a zero-sum game of alignment.
This also applies to America’s critical mineral grand strategy. It is not feasible to remove China entirely from the critical mineral supply chain, nor would it be desirable. Instead, the U.S. ought to learn from our decades of lacking infrastructure investment in Africa and present ourselves as a ready, willing, and reliable partner for development.
To do this, investment in projects like the Lobito Corridor will be necessary. Future investments in mining, transportation, and refinement should present compelling and competitive alternatives to the PRC. In particular, the executive branch, working together with Congress, should allocate additional resources and direct development finance institutions to specifically pursue critical mineral mining opportunities in Africa. To prepare for the possibility of being cut off from strategic materials, Congress should revitalize the National Defense Stockpile by appropriating additional funds, investing in recycling technology, and encouraging coordination with private mining and refinement companies.
Minerals mined today will power tomorrow’s advanced technology: robotics, quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and more. No matter what America does, Chinese investments like TAZARA and Bagamoyo will be major parts of that supply chain for decades to come. But the U.S. doesn’t have to accept second place in the frontier technology race. By taking positive action, America and its allies can offer meaningful alternatives to secure critical minerals whose extraction benefits African states, legitimate purchasers, and American national security.
